Builders’ Merchants’ Sales Falter amid Global Tensions

Total like-for-like value sales in February were 4.3% lower than the same month in 2025, according to the latest Builders’ Merchant Building Index (BMBI).

With no difference in trading days, total unadjusted value sales were also 4.3% lower, with volumes down 10.6% and prices up 7.0%.

By value, six of the twelve categories sold more, with Renewables & Water Saving increasing by 19.6%. Of the two biggest categories, Timber & Joinery Products (+0.3%) performed better than Total Builders’ Merchants, but Heavy Building Materials decreased by 8.4%. Landscaping (-8.5%) was the weakest category, although only fractionally behind Heavy Building Materials.

With no difference in trading days, total value sales were down 3.3% in the three months (Dec 2025 – Feb 2026) compared to the same three months last year.

Year-on-Year

In the 12 months from March 2025 to February 2026, like-for-like value sales were up 0.4% compared to the previous 12-month period (Mar 2024 to Feb 2025). Like-for-like volume sales (+0.2%) and prices (+0.3%) both increased.

With one less trading day in the most recent 12-month period, unadjusted value sales were flat (0.0%) with volumes down 0.2% and prices up 0.3%.

By value, ten of the twelve categories sold more, led by Renewables & Water Saving (+8.3%). Timber & Joinery Products (+2.2%) were ahead of Total Builders’ Merchants, while Heavy Building Materials fell -1.7%. Decorating was weakest (-1.9%).

In the year to date (Jan to Feb 2026), like-for-like value sales were 3.4% lower than the first two months of 2025. Like-for-like volume sales were down 8.8% and prices were up 6.0%.

With one less trading day in 2026, unadjusted value sales for the first two months were 5.7% lower year-on-year. Unadjusted volumes were down 11.0% while prices rose by 6.0%.

No End in Sight

Mike Rigby, Managing Director of MRA Research which produces the BMBI report, commented: “As I write this it’s Day 47 of the Iran War and it’s hard to see an end. Bewilderingly, Trump’s answer to Iran’s refusal to capitulate is to blockade their blockade so the Straits of Hormuz are totally sealed off to everyone. The rest of the world is being held over a barrel (an oil one).

“About one month from now, when average stocks run out, the global economy will be facing the consequences of an actual gas and oil shortage of about 10 million barrels a day, according to Wood Mackenzie, the global leader in data, analytics and insights for the energy and natural resources industry. That’s equivalent to an economic hit like Covid. Some countries are already suffering shortages and knock on effects.

“The latest GfK Consumer Confidence Index shows a 2-point fall in March, to -21 – the third month of decline since January. The biggest drop was in views of the general economic situation over the next 12 months, which fell 6 points to -37. The major purchase index, indicative of potential spending on home improvements, tumbled 4 points to -18, while the savings index increased 6 points to 27. Consumers are very concerned about the impact of the war on the economy and are favouring money in the bank over spending.

Some Green Shoots

“But there are some green shoots for merchants with a surge in consumer interest in electric vehicles and home energy upgrades, as consumers try to uncouple from erratic oil and gas prices. Octopus Energy and British Gas have both seen record increases in solar and heat pump enquiries. Paul Haynes, BAXI’s Product, Solutions & Marketing Director, BMBI’s Expert for Heating & Hot Water Solutions, says the heat pumps market was up 25% in 2025 year on year.”

Download February’s BMBI report here.

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