Strongest Rise in Commercial Construction Activity for Over Two Years

NOVEMBER 2024 data highlighted a robust upturn in UK construction activity. However, new order growth eased to a five-month low and year-ahead business activity expectations were the least upbeat since October 2023.

At 55.2 in November, up slightly from 54.3 in October, the headline S&P Global UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI) – a seasonally adjusted index tracking changes in total industry activity – pointed to a robust and accelerated expansion of overall construction activity. The headline index has now posted above the neutral 50.0 threshold for nine months running.

Rise in Commercial Output

A faster upturn in construction output was driven by the strongest rise in commercial work for two-and-a-half years (index at 58.1). Survey respondents commented on improving customer demand and new opportunities to tender, despite relatively subdued economic conditions. Civil engineering activity (55.9) also expanded at a strong pace in November. That said, the rate of growth slipped to a three-month low.

Housebuilding (47.9) remained by far the weakest-performing category of construction work in November. The respective seasonally adjusted index was inside negative territory for the second month in a row and signalled the fastest rate of decline since June. Construction companies once again noted that elevated borrowing costs and fragile consumer confidence had an adverse impact on demand conditions.

New business volumes increased across the construction sector as a whole for the tenth successive month in November and at a sold pace. The rate of growth nonetheless slipped to its lowest since June. There were some reports that political and economic uncertainty linked to the Autumn Budget had affected client confidence. Where growth was reported, with was often linked to new projects in the commercial sector.

Marginal Rise in Employment

November data highlighted only a marginal rise in employment numbers, with the rate of job creation easing to a three-month low. Anecdotal evidence highlighted increasing employment costs as a factor holding back staff hiring. Some construction companies commented on greater use of sub-contractors to help mitigate rising costs. This was signalled by an increase in sub-contractor usage for the first time since July. Latest data nonetheless pointed to the steepest increase in subcontractor charges for 16 months.

Purchasing activity meanwhile increased at the slowest pace since the current phase of expansion began in May, largely reflecting a loss of momentum for new order growth. Supplier performance deteriorated to the greatest extent since February 2023, with survey respondents mainly citing transportation issues and international shipping delays.

Construction companies recorded the fastest rise in their average cost burdens for 18 months in November. This was linked to a general increase in raw material prices, as well as efforts among some suppliers to pass on higher staff costs.

Finally, around 43% of the survey panel predict an increase in business activity during the year ahead, while 21% forecast a reduction. Although this signalled upbeat business expectations across the construction sector, the degree of optimism was down sharply since October and the lowest for 13 months. Anecdotal evidence from survey respondents widely suggested that worries about the UK economic outlook and impact on business investment from rising employment costs had weighed on business optimism in November.

COMMENT

Tim Moore, S&P Global Economics Director

Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “The construction sector bucked the slowdown seen elsewhere across the UK economy in November, according to the latest S&P Global PMI survey. Total industry activity once again expanded at a robust pace and there has been a clear acceleration in growth compared to that seen in the first half of 2024.

“However, the recovery in construction activity remains somewhat lopsided. Strengthening demand for commercial work and civil engineering projects contrasted with a sustained downturn in house building. Commercial construction activity expanded at the fastest pace for two-and-a-half years in November, while residential work declined at the steepest rate since June. Elevated borrowing costs and fragile client confidence meanwhile acted as a brake on new order growth in November, with the upturn in sales the slowest for five months.

“A loss of momentum for new work, alongside concerns about rising employment costs, resulted in weaker job creation and falling business optimism across the construction sector. The degree of positive sentiment regarding year-ahead growth prospects dropped to the lowest since October 2023. Many construction companies cited concerns about the near-term UK economic outlook and subsequent cutbacks to new projects.”

INDUSTRY COMMENT

Welcome Surprise

Brendan Sharkey, MHA Real Estate and Construction Specialist

Brendan Sharkey, Real Estate and Construction Specialist at MHA, commented: “The upturn in construction activity has come as a welcome surprise to the industry with commercial work charging ahead of the other subsectors. However, the overall UK economic outlook has weakened with an anticipated uptick in inflation, a delay in further interest rate cuts and an increase in the cost of labour seems to be weighing on the general housebuilding subsector.

“The anticipated falls in interest rates that were predicted earlier in the year for this month and early 2025 will have already been banked in by many, and the stagnation will come as a blow to many businesses and house buyers, particularly as mortgage rates have also gone up.

“While there was positive news for the construction of social housing in the Budget, optimism in the general housing sector has deflated. House buyers will either be looking to complete before Christmas or will wait until the Spring. Either way, they will want to get purchases through before the increase in Stamp Duty in April, which will further dampen the housing market.

“The UK Housing Review in April 2025 should provide some clarity to the market but the reality is that only a fall in interest rates will spur on housebuilding activity. Affordability along with job security are the key components for housing demand. However, despite the gloomy economic outlook, there are a couple of bright spots, including a steady commercial “A” grade property market and external investors investing in higher priced properties as they continue to view the UK market as a safe haven.”

Outlook for Developers Not as Optimistic

Terry Woodley, MD of Development Finance at Shawbrook

Terry Woodley, MD of Development Finance at Shawbrook, said: “Construction output has had another strong month, with the PMI revealing that commercial construction activity accelerated to its fastest in two and a half years. However, the long-term outlook for developers may not be as optimistic following the Government’s recent budget.

“Housebuilding, on the other hand, remained by far the weakest performing category, despite the recent reforms and announcements such as the recruitment of hundreds of planning officers. Reaching the ambitious 1.5m new homes target is going to require thorough and comprehensive reform, and yet the path to achieving this still doesn’t seem particularly clear. The decision not to extend stamp duty relief for first-time buyers could also hamper progress, given that they are the majority buyers of newly built homes.

“SME developers are going to play a crucial role in meeting this target, so it’s important that the Government lays out detailed and effective plans to remove red tape, improve planning systems and encourage developers. Otherwise, the same issues currently stalling development risk dragging and halting any significant progress.”

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