Most Detailed Picture Yet of UK’s Future Climate

THE UK’S most comprehensive picture yet of how the UK’s future climate could change over the next century has been launched today by Environment Secretary Michael Gove.

The UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) include:

• Data gives most detailed picture yet of temperature, rainfall and sea level rise over next century
• Cutting-edge science to help businesses and homes plan for the future
• Future climate scenarios until 2100 – showing increasing summer temperatures, more extreme weather and rising sea levels are all on the horizon and urgent international action is needed.

UK’s Future Climate

To help homes and businesses plan for the future, the results set out a range of possible outcomes over the next century based on different rates of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. The high emission scenario shows:

Summer temperatures could be up to 5.4 °C hotter by 2070, while winters could be up to 4.2 °C warmer. The chance of a summer as hot as 2018 is around 50 % by 2050.

In London, sea levels could rise by up to 1.15 metres by 2100 while average summer rainfall could decrease by up to 47 % by 2070, and there could be up to 35 % more precipitation in winter.

Sea levels are projected to rise over the 21st century and beyond under all emission scenarios – meaning we can expect to see an increase in both the frequency and magnitude of extreme water levels around the UK coastline. Even in the low emission scenario, the projections show the UK’s average yearly temperature could be up to 2.3 °C higher by the end of the century.

Tackling Climate Change

Speaking today from the Science Museum in London, Environment Secretary Michael Gove said: “This cutting-edge science opens our eyes to the extent of the challenge we face, and shows us a future we want to avoid.

“The UK is already a global leader in tackling climate change, cutting emissions by more than 40 % since 1990 – but we must go further.”

Today’s projections are the first major update of climate projections in nearly 10 years.

Chair of the Environment Agency, Emma Howard Boyd, said: “The UKCP18 projections are further evidence that we will see more extreme weather in the future – we need to prepare and adapt now, climate change impacts are already being felt with the record books being re-written.

“It is not too late to act. Working together – governments, business, and communities – we can mitigate the impacts of climate change and adapt to a different future.”