Forecast Reveals Low Yet Positive Growth for Construction Amid Brexit Uncertainty

POSITIVE GROWTH is expected for the construction sector despite the uncertainty of Brexit, according to the latest forecast from the Construction Industry Training Board (CITB).

The annual Construction Skills Network (CSN) report anticipates construction growth of 1.3% across the UK, down a third of a percent on the previous year. The prediction is based on the proviso that the UK agrees an exit deal with the EU, rather than a ‘No Deal’ situation.

Low Yet Positive Growth for Construction

The largest increase is expected in public housing. Financial support from the Government at both local and national levels is encouraging a 3.2% growth rate in public housing, up half a percent from last year’s forecast.

Infrastructure is set to grow by 1.9%, down from 3.1% predicted in last year’s forecast.

Commercial construction is significantly declining due to investors taking a cautious stance in the face of Brexit. The forecast expects the sector to drop sharply this year then level out by 2023, with zero growth anticipated overall.

In contrast, the housing repair and maintenance sector appears to be benefitting from a quieter property market as home owners halt plans to sell up and instead focus on improving their current properties. By 2023, the sector is expected to have grown by 1.7%.

Rise in Employment

An approximate 168,500 construction jobs are estimated to be created in the UK over the next five years, 10,000 more than in last year’s forecast. Construction employment is expected to reach 2.79 million in 2023, just 2% lower than its peak in 2008.

Steve Radley, Policy Director at CITB, said: “This forecast aptly reflects the uncertainty, particularly associated with Brexit that we’re seeing across the wider economy. Currently, concerns around Brexit are weighing on clients and investors, creating a knock-on effect on contractors and their ability to plan ahead.

“However, assuming that a deal is agreed, we expect low but positive growth for construction.  Even as infrastructure slows, sectors like public housing and R&M are strengthening. This will see the number of construction jobs increase over the next five years, creating growing opportunities for careers in construction and increasing the importance of tackling the skills pressures we face.”

>> Read more about Brexit in the news