CITB Publishes Construction Industry Outlook and 5-Year Forecast

THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY Training Board (CITB) has published its latest Construction Skills Network Forecast for 2021-2025.

For this forecast, the CITB has not included the usual annual recruitment requirement for the sector as it says the economic environment is too uncertain. Instead, it will publish figures in its annual report published in the first quarter of 2021.

The CSN Forecast shows that both employment and self-employment in construction finished the first lockdown of 2020 with reduced numbers, reflecting the circa 10% drop in output. By the end of June, 2020, employment fell by 1.7% and self-employment by 6.2%.

Three Industry Outlook Scenarios

The forecast sets out three scenarios in its outlook to 2025, base, mid and worst cases, with 10%, 11% and 14% unemployment respectively across the whole economy. In construction, the base-case (best case) scenario forecasts that 2025 will see employment in the sector down by 5,000 on 2019 numbers.

In the roofing sector, it is notable that CITB forecasts a greater need for training during the recovery. This is hopeful news for the continuation of the roof training groups beyond 2020. The CSN Forecast says:

In the Medium Term, 2023-2025, as the sector recovers Employers increases demand for training in response to new ways of working, the adoption of new technologies and the changing nature of jobs and skill requirements in the post-pandemic world.

Funding will target the areas of greatest need and protect ‘niche’ skills.

More widely, the report recommends four actions for government to support construction:

• To make construction a priority sector;
• Reform the Apprenticeship Levy to recognise prior learning and allow large employers to bulk spend surplus levy;
• Help get more college students into construction jobs by creating new pathways into industry;
• Provide certainty on infrastructure pipeline.

You can view the CSN Forecast 2021-2025 here.

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